Channel mix over 17 months, the organic-search erosion, the rise of AI traffic, and a two-year seasonality view of spend & CAC that answers whether the current squeeze is the calendar or something real.
Organic search is eroding — ~56k/mo (May '25) to ~46k (May '26). Steady bleed, not a cliff. Likely tied to the AI shift below.
AI referrals (ChatGPT-led) grew ~412→2,100/mo YoY. Real trend, but still ~0.5% of traffic. It's likely cannibalizing organic search clicks, not adding net demand yet.
CAC peaks every May–Jun and troughs at BFCM. 2025 hit $95–98 in summer; 2026 is ~$101 — the same shape, running only modestly hotter.
Monthly sessions by GA4 channel. Paid social is the engine (and the BFCM/late-2025 cross-network surge stands out). June 2026 excluded (partial month). Source: GA4.
Organic search clicks are bleeding ~17% YoY while AI-assistant referrals are up ~5×. That's the industry pattern: people increasingly ask ChatGPT/Gemini instead of Googling, so traditional organic clicks shrink and a thin AI-referral stream replaces a sliver of them. Net: it's a channel shift, not necessarily lost demand — but it does mean SEO content should be optimized to be cited by AI answers, and the AI channel is worth tracking as it compounds.
You asked specifically about email, SMS, and AppLovin. Compared same-month YoY (a fair, seasonal comparison). Monthly through May 2026 (June partial excluded); AppLovin is daily spend.
Organic: organic search is down ~17% YoY (the AI-cannibalization story above), but total organic is roughly flat (−3%) — organic social offset the search decline. Email: up/volatile, not a problem. SMS: the genuine drop — roughly halved YoY; worth a list-health / send-frequency check. AppLovin: turned off May 16, back on ~Jun 11 — so any change around then is a deliberate spend decision, not a tracking issue.
Against a competitor story: Direct traffic (a brand-demand proxy) is roughly flat YoY, and CTR on Meta actually improved — both argue brand pull is intact. Possibly consistent with one: Meta CPM rose ~55% into summer (more auction competition can do that), and organic search slipped. But CPM is also seasonal, and organic slipping fits the AI shift above.
What owned data can't answer: whether a specific competitor is outbidding you in the Meta auction or winning brand search. That needs external signals.
Say the word and I'll pull Google Trends brand-vs-competitor and stand up the Meta Ad Library scan.
Monthly blended CAC, spend, and new customers across ~19 months (Nov 2024 – May 2026, June partial excluded). Two full spring/summer cycles. Source: Daily Stand (Northbeam-fed, Clicks-Only).
CAC follows a clear annual rhythm: cheapest in Q4 (BFCM volume floods cheap new customers), most expensive May–August. Last year CAC ran $95–98 in May–June; 2026 is tracking ~$101 in May — the same seasonal peak, only ~3–6% hotter year-over-year. So most of "CAC is bad right now" is the calendar; the genuine YoY degradation is small. The bigger near-term swing is the deliberate Meta spend pullback in June, not a structural CAC blowout.
Sources: GA4 (property 310751693) monthly sessions by channel + AI-referral sources (chatgpt.com, gemini, perplexity, claude.ai, copilot; excludes bing.com) Jan 2025 – May 2026. Daily Stand (Northbeam Clicks-Only spend; Shopify new customers; blended CAC) Nov 2024 – May 2026. Partial current month (June 2026) excluded from all charts. Multi-year extends to ~Jun 2024 in monthly format; 2023 would require the older weekly-format tabs.
Related: D2C Complete Overview · 6-Month Pulse · YoY Benchmark.